Commentary: The Iran deal: For U.S., it's just one more broken promise
Albany Times-Union, June 11, 2018
Abstract: President Trump's decision to "tear up" the Iran Deal is just on more example of the United States backing out of or failing to uphold international agreements. As the author states, "This trend is making the world less safe, and it has significantly reduced the United States' "moral authority" and trust among other nations."
Trump’s First Meeting With Kim May Be Little More Than a Photo Op
Fortune, June 11, 2018
Abstract: With the summit only hours away, the author offers some thoughts on what interested actors want out of the meeting. The author asks, "Will this be a showdown like the O.K. Corral? Or will it be parlayed, as some have suggested, into President Trump’s “Nixon-to-China” moment?"
How Diplomacy With North Korea Could Be Doomed From the Start
Fortune, May 8, 2018
Abstract: The planned summit between the US and North Korea has the potential to reduce tensions. However, both sides must manage their expectations. As the author states, "North Korea believes it has a seat at the big kids nuclear table. The U.S. and the others must realize that an attempt at negotiations where already tense participants have different perceptions and expectations would be a failed effort at best."
North Korea's Nuclear Program Distracts Us From Kim Jong Un's bigger threats
Newsweek, January 10, 2018
Abstract: North Korea's nuclear and missile tests are, in the words of the author, "the equivalent of a magician distracting onlookers." The world needs to remember to pay attention to North Korea's more subtle threats: cyber attacks, and chemical and biological weapons production.
The Coming Genocide? Burundi's Past, Present, and Potentially Deadly Future
Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, Vol. 41, Issue 9, pp.722-735.
Abstract: The Great Lakes region of Africa is the most conflict-prone region of the world and one current concern is political violence in Burundi. This research investigates whether Burundi is on the precipice of a genocide. Burundi’s weak democratic norms, genocidal history, and the impact of contagion and diffusion of violence in the region, provide a number of the conditions that could contribute to a genocide. This research investigates the past and present conflict variables of the Great Lakes region with a focus on Burundi and assesses the potential that the ongoing political violence in Burundi will lead to genocide.
Testing for contagion/diffusion of terrorism in state dyads
Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, Vol. 36, Issue 4, pp.292-314.
Abstract: This article tests the application of contagion/diffusion theories of political violence to terrorist activity. In order to apply theories of contagion/diffusion to terrorism, Granger causality analysis of terrorist activity in three state dyads—Lebanon–Israel, Peru–Colombia, India–Pakistan—is conducted. Within each dyad, terrorist activities in general and specific terrorist tactics in particular are analyzed. The test results show that there are correlations of terrorist events that indicate evidence of contagion and/or diffusion in all three dyads tested, although the patterns of contagion/diffusion are different for each dyad.